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OUR APPROACH

A signal is an input. Discipline is the process.

Our research framework connects a view of the market with a clear account of its assumptions, constraints and possible outcomes.

THE PRINCIPLE THAT CONNECTS IT ALL

We ask what could be right.
And what could be wrong.

No model removes uncertainty. Our focus is on making the reasoning, the exposure and the limits easier to examine.

FROM INFORMATION TO A CONSIDERED VIEW

Four stages.
A continuous conversation.

01

Start with the context

Consider the underlying market, contract terms, options positioning, volatility and liquidity together. Define the prediction horizon before evaluating a signal.

  • Market and event context
  • Contract and liquidity checks
  • Consistent research horizons
02

Challenge the hypothesis

Evaluate the model against simpler approaches. Examine unseen periods, costs and sensitivity to changes in assumptions.

  • Out-of-sample evaluation
  • Comparison with baseline methods
  • Execution and cost assumptions
03

Make the risk decision

A useful forecast can still be the wrong exposure. Consider loss scenarios, position size and the wider portfolio before participation.

  • Position and portfolio limits
  • Adverse scenario analysis
  • Liquidity and concentration
04

Review with perspective

Keep the original decision record. Separate the quality of the process from the outcome of one trade, and review where assumptions no longer hold.

  • Decision and outcome records
  • Model and regime monitoring
  • Reasons to pause or reassess
SEPARATE HORIZONS. SEPARATE CONSTRAINTS.

One market does not
mean one model.

Our framework distinguishes intraday research from multi-session research, and index and ETF options from individual equities. Each calls for its own evaluation, event awareness and risk limits.

Explore the strategy framework
THE NEXT CONVERSATION

A better perspective.
A considered next step.

Explore our research, build your understanding, or ask about the programmes taking shape at Gamma Pilot.

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