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RISK & PROCESS / 4 MIN READ

Build a journal that improves your questions

Record your assumptions before seeing the outcome.

Write the decision before the result

A useful paper-trading journal starts with a timestamp, the information you had, the hypothesis and the conditions that would make it wrong. Include the intended holding period, the contract terms, the planned exit and the reason for the position size.

Keep the first version. Editing an explanation after the outcome can make a weak decision look stronger than it was.

Separate process from luck

A profitable example can come from a poor process, and a well-reasoned example can lose. Review whether you followed your stated method, which assumptions held, and which did not. Record actual or simulated costs and label the two accurately.

Look across a group of decisions. One memorable result rarely answers whether a process is repeatable.

A simple review format

Use five prompts: What did I expect? What did I risk? What happened? What was within my control? What will I test next? Apply them to paper examples until you can explain the trade-offs clearly. The purpose is better reasoning, not a collection of screenshots of winners.